The use of CAPEMO Causal Model on the Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Human Failure on Fluid Penetrant Inspection.

In any industry branch there are situations where the failure of a critical component, be it a rotating part of an aircraft engine, a pressure vessel nozzle or a cruciform tubular welded joint in an Off Shore Jacket, can have dramatic consequences. Since the visual nature of the Fluid Penetrant Inspection relies so many on cognitive, skill and attitudinal aspects of human performance, it is of paramount importance to study the risks of failure on such performance. Several Risk Analysis tools are applied to assist in the identification of such risks. The purpose of this paper is to use the CAPEMO Causal Model (Pereira et al., 2014) to carry out a probabilistic analysis of the chances of a human error during inspection by Penetrant Fluid.The proposed study analyses the FPI inspection process and identifies the challenging areas where human factors may affect the inspection performance and considers that if an important discontinuity (in this case, a crack) is not identified during the inspection process, it is considered as the pivotal event leading to a possible catastrophic failure with severe consequences related to it.Usually the Risk Analysis are carried out to assess the risks in a qualitative way. The innovation contained in this article is the application of the CAPEMO Causal Model to perform a Human Reliability Analysis by aggregating the probabilistic analysis of risks using the Fault Tree diagram to help defining in the human factors that affects the FPI process, thus submitting a iterative online survey based on the conclusions from the fault tree diagram to specialists and use the results to prepare a Bayesian Network using a specific software that allowed a deeper assessment of which root causes contributed more to the pivotal event occurs and propose actions to reduce the probability of a major defect is not detected due to a Human failure. Keywords: Risk Management, BBN, Fault-Tree, FPI, CAPEMO, Human factors, HRAReference to this paper should be made as follows: Pereira, J.C.; ‘Causal Model for Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Jet Engine Failure in Manufacturing Situational Operation (CAPEMO)’, International Journal of Engineering Science and Innovative Technology (IJESIT) Volume 3, Issue 3, May 2014